This Historical Recurrence Suggests Bitcoin Price May Not Slip Below $110,000
Bitcoin is attempting a recovery after recent volatility, with prices stabilizing above key support levels.
The crypto king is benefiting from steadier market conditions, though signs point toward a phase of consolidation rather than an extended rally. Historical trends suggest Bitcoin may be entering a familiar cooling-off period.
Bitcoin Risk Is Reducing
The supply quantiles risk indicator highlights this development. Bitcoin’s mid-August rally to new highs marked the third multi-month euphoric phase of this cycle, defined by surging momentum that placed nearly all supply in profit. This behavior is reflected by the 0.95 quantile cost basis, where 95% of supply holds unrealized gains.
The latest euphoric phase lasted about 3.5 months before demand showed exhaustion. At present, Bitcoin trades between the 0.85 and 0.95 quantile cost basis, or roughly $104,100 to $114,300. Historically, this range has functioned as a consolidation corridor following euphoric peaks, producing sideways action as buyers and sellers balance.
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Bitcoin Supply Quantiles CBM. Source: Glassnode
The percentage of short-term holder supply in profit offers further clarity. As Bitcoin slipped to $108,000, the share of short-term supply in profit collapsed from above 90% to just 42%. This sharp reversal reflected fear-driven selling, a common feature of overheated markets.
Following that drawdown, exhausted sellers fueled a rebound to $112,000. Currently, more than 60% of short-term holders are back in profit, a neutral condition compared to recent extremes. However, confidence remains fragile.
A sustained recovery above $114,000–$116,000, where over 75% of short-term holder supply would be profitable, is needed to restore stronger demand.
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Supply in Profit. Source: Glassnode
BTC Price May Witness Extended Consolidation
Bitcoin crossing the $112,500 resistance is encouraging, providing a path toward $115,000. This level is crucial for attracting new capital inflows, which would validate the recovery and increase the likelihood of sustained upward momentum.
However, historical patterns suggest consolidation remains likely. Bitcoin may settle under $115,000 or slip below $112,500, with sideways price action dominating the short term as the market absorbs recent volatility.
Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
If profit-taking accelerates, Bitcoin could face sharper declines. A drop back to $110,000, or even a loss of this support, would weaken sentiment and invalidate the bullish thesis, leaving BTC vulnerable to extended consolidation or further downside.
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