Famous Portfolio Manager Who Claims to Know the Past Bulls Releases Bitcoin Price Forecast for the Coming Months – “First $50,000, Then…”
Portfolio manager Knox Ridley shared a comprehensive assessment of the process that began after the peak of the Bitcoin (BTC) cycle.
Ridley argued that the market often blindsides narrative-based investors, and that an approach centered on technical analysis and investor psychology yields healthier results in the long run.
Ridley recalled that in December 2022, when Bitcoin was trading around $16,000, they predicted the start of a new bull cycle and, contrary to the crowd, took a long position. He stated that in the following months, they published seven separate analyses designating Bitcoin as a “buy” and gave their premium members 13 separate buy signals during the period from approximately $25,000 to $60,000.
However, in October 2024, when market narratives peaked and targets above $200,000 were being loudly discussed, Ridley argued that the risk had significantly increased, leading them to change their strategy. He stated that in their analysis published at that time, they highlighted the imbalance between risk and return, and indicated they would reduce risk during rallies leading to new highs. In this context, they reduced a significant portion of their Bitcoin positions by issuing nine separate sell signals in the $95,000 to $113,000 range.
According to Ridley, market psychology is once again becoming the determining factor, with the possibility of a new bear cycle gaining strength. The portfolio manager suggests that new narratives will emerge in the coming months that could lure investors into the market at the wrong time. In the current outlook, his base scenario is a strong rebound in Bitcoin towards the $84,000–$107,000 range. However, he noted that before this rise, the price could make one final limited pullback towards the $50,000 region.
Ridley stated that a strong signal that a bottom has been reached would be received if Bitcoin were to rise above the $72,500 level again. However, he emphasized that they would consider a potential rise below $107,000 as a “bear market rally.” He added that if the rise is weak, volatile, and of a corrective nature, the risk of a final decline towards the $40,000-$30,000 range in the coming months could increase.
On the other hand, Ridley noted that they would reassess the possibility of new highs if $107,000 is breached with a strong and steep move, adding that he believes the bear cycle may not even be halfway complete at the current stage.
*This is not investment advice.
