Bitcoin Plummets Further, Watch Out for Tomorrow: $8.5 Billion Options Earthquake – Here’s What You Need to Know
Cryptocurrency derivatives analysis platform GreeksLive reported that the first monthly Bitcoin option expiration date of 2026 has begun, and a cautious outlook prevails in the market.
According to the data, more than 25% of total open positions will expire on tomorrow’s expiration date.
GreeksLive stated in its assessment that the Fed’s decision to keep its policy interest rate unchanged, in line with expectations, and the absence of any significant development that could strongly impact the market in the near term, limited price movements. In this environment, while the Bitcoin price followed a horizontal trend, it was stated that implied volatility (IV) in the options market continued its downward trend.
According to the analysis, Bitcoin returned to a narrow consolidation range in the second half of the month. The $90,000 level stood out as strong resistance, while the $86,000 region, which was broken today, was being watched as an important support point.
On the other hand, GreeksLive noted that some institutional investors have recently started moving their Bitcoin holdings to exchanges. This situation has increased liquidity pressure in the crypto market, and a relatively weak performance has been observed in crypto-related US stock market shares. The report stated that market sentiment is gradually shifting to a more cautious and pessimistic tone, and that discourse stemming from geopolitical risks and FUD (uncertainty, fear, and doubt) is also on the rise.
However, markets are focused on tomorrow. Tomorrow, at 11:00 AM Turkish time (08:00 UTC), approximately $8.5 billion worth of Bitcoin option contracts will expire. This figure is notable as the largest option expiry so far this year. The price level at which most contracts expire worthless, known as “maximum pain” in the options market, is estimated to be around $90,000.
While market makers are known to often tend to bring the price closer to this equilibrium point, the high weighting of call options within open positions is noteworthy. Analysts point out that this situation could trigger aggressive hedging transactions in the event of a sharp upward movement in price around $90,000, leading to rapid price fluctuations in a short period.
*This is not investment advice.
