Bitcoin ‘is done’ if it crosses this level, according to expert
Bitcoin ‘is done’ if it crosses this level, according to expert 
Cryptocurrency Jan 27, 2026 Share
Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a make-or-break technical level that has historically defined the transition from bull markets to deep bear cycles, according to a trading expert.
This outlook comes after Bitcoin lost the $90,000 support amid the broader cryptocurrency market sell-off, partly triggered by waning interest in risk assets. To this end, Bitcoin has seen a notable exodus of institutional investors.
Now, a TradingShot analysis shared on TradingView on January 26 shows Bitcoin trading just below the one-month Bollinger Bands Basis in the mid-$80,000s, with the spot price near $87,000 as the monthly close approaches. The analysis warns that time is running out for a recovery, as failure to reclaim this level has historically carried major downside implications.
Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: TradingView
The one-month Bollinger Bands Basis has served as a long-term regime divider for more than a decade. Over the past 12 years, every monthly close below this level has signaled the start of Phase 2 of a bear cycle. Bitcoin has now spent three straight months testing and trading below the basis, a setup that has never turned bullish without a decisive month-end reclaim.
Key Bitcoin price levels to watch
A confirmed monthly close below the $85,000–$88,000 zone would likely expose deeper weekly support, with the first major downside target at the one-week MA200 near $50,000, a level reached in every bear cycle and which marked the January 2015 and December 2018 bottoms.
TradingShot also pointed to the one-week MA350 in the mid- to high-$40,000s as a more complete bear-cycle target. This moving average marked the November 2022 bottom and, in the prior cycle, was not tested until the bearish phase was fully exhausted.
A potential bottom around $50,000 aligns with the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the full bull-market advance, a zone that has contained all prior cycle lows. The convergence of the weekly MA200, MA350, and Fibonacci support reinforces this area as a likely macro floor if bearish conditions persist.
The analysis notes that a new bull cycle has only been confirmed after Bitcoin reclaimed and held above the one-week MA200, as seen in March 2023. Until a similar reclaim occurs, a monthly close below the one-month Bollinger Bands Basis would statistically signal bear-market continuation rather than a temporary correction.
Bitcoin price analysis
By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $87,762, down more than 3% on the weekly timeframe. Year-to-date, the leading cryptocurrency is down less than 1%.
Bitcoin seven-day price analysis. Source: Finbold
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price sits below both key moving averages, the 50-day simple moving average at $90,192 and the 200-day simple moving average at $104,666, a classic bearish signal indicating that both the short- and long-term trends remain under downward pressure.
Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 41.64, which is neutral but skewed toward weakness, suggesting limited bullish momentum at present.
Featured image via Shutterstock
