Bitcoin Derivatives Traders Are Betting on Further Upside Despite September Risks
Derivatives traders are expecting a slightly more optimistic outlook for Bitcoin in September despite macroeconomic uncertainty and seasonality odds, with experts indicating muted downside volatility.
In response, Bitcoin has bounced 3% over the last two days, showing a slight bullish skew and currently trades around $110,000, CoinGecko data shows.
The uptick, however, occurs amid flat cumulative volume deltas, with a noticeable increase in passive bids at a 10% order book depth, according to CoinGlass data.
In other words, the slight price bump is not being driven by aggressive buying. Instead, the move coincides with more passive buying.
It comes as open interest on perpetuals has spiked 2.35% to $30 billion in the last two days, as traders begin to position ahead of this week’s employment figures.
The historical drag of September’s bearish seasonality, meanwhile, is forcing U.S. investors to reassess their positions ahead, as they look toward the end of the financial year on September 30.
The Bitcoin options market, meanwhile, tells a different story.
Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Dervie, told Decrypt that options traders are making bullish bets for the September 26 expiry, evidenced by a build-up of open interest at the $120,000, $130,000, and $140,000 strikes.
“Since market makers are net long gamma,” an increase in Bitcoin’s price will most likely be dampened by hedge selling, Dawson said. Similarly, price drops will also be minimized as dealers would be forced to buy to hedge their positions.
Bitcoin’s implied volatility over the next 30 days is holding near 30%, underscoring the recent stretch of subdued price moves.
Still, traders aren’t entirely calm. A key options gauge—the one-week 25 delta skew, which reflects demand for downside protection—jumped from 6.75 to 12 overnight.
The shift shows that while investors expect the market to remain contained, they are hedging against the risk of a sudden drop.
The immediate-term direction now hinges on Friday’s upcoming Non-farm Payrolls report. A bullish jobs report would most likely just limit the “red September” damage, according to Dawson, rather than spark a major rally.
He adds that while a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is priced in as highly likely, “failure to see a cut at the next FOMC will make September a lot more painful.”
