Billions flowing out of bitcoin ETFs and private credit funds suggest rising market risks
If the second quarter was bad for bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with record outflows of nearly $5 billion, it was even more brutal for private credit.
Investors yanked out $4 billion from U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, led by BlackRock’s IBIT in June alone, according to data source SoSoValue. The outflow was mainly due to capital rotation into the AI trade and other high-profile opportunities, such as SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO. The market felt the heat as bitcoin’s $BTC$63,205.22 price fell roughly 14% in the second quarter, dipping below $60,000 to register its third straight quarterly loss.
However, that outflow was dwarfed by liquidity stress in the $2 trillion private credit market, where investors requested $15.6 billion in redemptions during Q2 and were only partially satisfied. According to data tracked by Fitch, redemption requests exceeded the standard 5% quarterly cap at 10 of the 16 business development companies (BDCs), meaning many investors received only a portion of their money and remain in line for future quarters.
Average requests rose to 10.3% of shares from 9.7% in Q1, but ranged widely (1.3%–38.1% at Blue Owl’s OTIC), Fitch said. Many requests were follow-ups from investors who were only partly satisfied last quarter. New inflows fell by about 56% on average, so most funds saw net outflows of roughly 3% of the prior quarter’s net asset value.
What’s concerning, for private credit, is that Fitch expects continued redemptions in the months ahead.
“With BDCs capping redemptions at 5% quarterly, unfulfilled requests will lead to persistent elevated redemptions for many firms in the coming quarters,” ratings agency Fitch warned,” the ratings agency said.
Same story, different structures
Bitcoin ETFs are liquid, exchange-traded vehicles, where outflows directly impact the spot price of $BTC. Private credit BDCs are the opposite: illiquid, long-duration lending vehicles with built-in quarterly gates.
Still, the fact that investors rushed for exit in both at the same time does point to broader caution around liquidity and risk appetite.
Amid all this, energy markets continue to send risk-off signals, with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level since 1983. So, if the energy market remains disrupted, the government now has significantly less buffer to flood the market with oil and keep prices lower.
