Bitcoin could crash to $38,000 in October 2026, warns top crypto analyst
Bitcoin could crash to $38,000 in October 2026, warns top crypto analyst 
Cryptocurrency Jan 13, 2026 Share
The early 2026 cryptocurrency market has been marked by a fierce corrida between Bitcoin (BTC) bulls and bears, with the former anticipating BTC is set for another rally, and the latter estimating traders are facing the opening stages of another ‘crypto winter.’
Popular on-chain expert, Ali Martinez, is more on the bearish side as he, in a January 12 X post, revealed that Bitcoin will hit this cycle’s bottom in about 267 days – sometime in October 2026:
267 days remain until Bitcoin $BTC is projected to reach a cycle bottom, likely between $38,000 and $50,000.
267 days remain until Bitcoin $BTC is projected to reach a cycle bottom, likely between $38,000 and $50,000. https://t.co/C66sa3gcd4 pic.twitter.com/1gUXpaY47C
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) January 12, 2026
Why Bitcoin will crash to the 2026 market bottom in October
An earlier post made by the analyst also reveals the core logic behind the prediction: BTC usually takes about 1,064 days to move from the market bottom to the top, and another 364 days for the journey back.
To back the claim, Martinez reached for the exact same cadence observable across three cycles between the January 2015 bottom and the October 2025 top.
Furthermore, considering the most recent Bitcoin all-time high came on October 6, 2025, and that the return journey tends to take 364 days, it is possible to deduce the next bottom will come on October 5, 2026.
Bitcoin’s 2026 lowest price revealed
Within the same post – originally published as an X article on December 21, 2025 – Ali Martinez revealed $37,500 as a likely BTC low for the ongoing cycle.
The cryptocurrency analyst explained that the bear market between 2017 and 2018 featured an 84% correction from the top, and the 2021 to 2022 bear market, a 77% pullback. Thus, the mid-point comes in at 80%, meaning the retracement from the latest high just above $126,000 could target $37,500.
BTC 5-year price chart. Source: Google
Still, Martinez left some room open as he set his forecast within the range between $38,000 and $50,000 in the January 12 X post, signaling an expectation that the 2026 correction will be slightly milder than historical ‘winters.’
Featured image via Shutterstock
