How Things Are Changing for Japan’s Largest Bitcoin Tank
Japanese company MetaPlanet has mirrored MicroStrategy by converting its balance sheet to Bitcoin. While the Japanese government has not adopted spot crypto ETFs and its taxation system has levied a heavier burden on crypto trading, stocks of companies like MetaPlanet have been regarded as a regulated proxy for Bitcoin exposure.
Now this edge is being tested as the regulatory environment changes.
From Bitcoin Proxy to Volatile Equity
Background
The company pivoted from a hospitality business to a Bitcoin treasury vehicle. The recent inclusion in the FTSE index attracted passive inflows. With no local ETFs and heavy tax burdens, investors turned to MetaPlanet as a “pseudo-ETF.”
Policy shifts loom: Japan’s tax council is debating a flat 20% levy on crypto gains, similar to equities, much lower than the current 55% at maximum. This could increase direct holdings. At the same time, JPYC, a yen stablecoin backed by Japanese government bonds, is gaining traction as a regulated liquidity tool.
Nothing Is Impossible
MetaPlanet shares trade at more than a 400% premium to the net value of its Bitcoin holdings. A 30%–50% BTC drawdown could trigger sharper equity sell-offs, the Financial Times reported. Repeated issuance of equity and warrant funds growth, but raises dilution concerns.
BeInCrypto reported that MetaPlanet’s premium relies on a self-reinforcing loop: higher premiums enable fundraising, which buys more BTC, sustaining the premium. That cycle can break if BTC falls.
On the other hand, some analysts note that MetaPlanet’s consistent BTC yield record and low liabilities suggest dilution may be less severe than feared, as its high mNAV has allowed proportionally larger raises for BTC purchases.
Latest Update
MetaPlanet filed for an overseas equity offering of up to 555 million new shares. The company disclosed that its Bitcoin holdings reached 18,991 BTC, worth about $2.1 billion. The stock has surged 480% year-to-date. Benchmark Research analyzed realized volatility at 133.9%.
MicroStrategy Also Suffered
Historical Perspective
MicroStrategy showed how a NAV premium can fund BTC via equity sales in bull markets. When cheaper, simpler channels emerge, premiums compress and funding windows narrow—risks MetaPlanet must manage. VanEck has noted similar dynamics in US markets.
- Dilution from repeated offerings
- Premium compression versus Bitcoin NAV
- Higher realized volatility than Bitcoin itself
- Substitution risk as tax reform lowers frictions
- Flow reversals if passive funds adjust exposures
- A sectorwide “death spiral” if mNAV loops break
Looking Forward
MetaPlanet aims to build a large Bitcoin treasury by 2027. The challenge is proving its equity route remains relevant as ETFs and direct holdings expand. Capital discipline and cash buffers will be crucial if premiums compress.
Experts Opinion
André Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise, commented to BeInCrypto regarding these issues:
- On tax and ETFs: “Equities currently enjoy far better tax treatment in Japan, but once Bitcoin ETFs are approved in 2026 and crypto tax reforms move forward, MP’s role as a Bitcoin proxy will most certainly lose appeal. The recent decline in its mNAV premium is partly linked to these developments.”
- On dilution: “MP has a strong track record of positive BTC yields, implying less dilution than feared. Its low liabilities and high mNAV have enabled capital raises with minimal dilution, and past execution suggests this is likely to continue.”
“Buying MetaPlanet stock is effectively buying Bitcoin exposure in a regulated wrapper.” — Vincent Liu, Kronos Research
“Many second- and third-generation individuals of family offices are starting to learn about and participate in virtual currencies.” — UBS China wealth executive via Reuters
