Bitcoin bottom not yet reached, Galaxy Digital data shows
Bitcoin (BTC) price has likely not reached its cycle bottom, according to a June 12, 2026, report from Galaxy Digital Inc. (NASDAQ: GLXY).
According to Galaxy, Bitcoin price is now falling in line with its previous bear market cycles. The firm’s data indicate the decline has further to run before it reaches a true bottom, with the base case pointing to a low between $40,000 and $46,000 sometime before the fourth quarter of 2026.
“Despite the declining impact of successive halvings, and many prognostications of a ‘supercycle,’ the empirical data yet again show evidence that the 4-year cycle is intact,” Galaxy Digital stated.
The firm noted that Bitcoin’s price is down 51% from its all-time high, eight months on from the October 2025 peak. As a result, the flagship coin has finally dropped below the 2013 – 2015 cycle’s 48% decline at the same stage, thereby ending its run as the mildest drawdown on record.
BTC bear market comparisons. Source: Galaxy Digital
Galaxy forecasts further Bitcoin price selloff
However, the current decline remains far shallower than the two most recent bear markets. Given that prior cycles bottomed between 77% and 85% below their peaks, Galaxy argued that the current drawdown has yet to reach the depth that has historically marked a true bottom.
Beyond its base case, the firm outlined a harsher scenario in which a deeper washout could drag the price down to between $30,000 and $37,000. Additionally, the firm flagged a milder outcome in which steady buying would hold the floor near $51,000 to $54,000.
The firm’s Bitcoin price prediction could be invalidated over the coming months, potentially catalyzed by a fresh wave of institutional buying. Moreover, BTC price has been following the cash flows of United States spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as Finbold explained.
